When will Lake Meade go dry?


According to Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USCD, and Lawrence Livermore Research Lab, the year is 2020 to 2023.!!!!!!! 

Many very credible studies have predicted the Colorado River would lose 10% to 30% of its flow over the next 30 to 50 years. The Sierra’s in California are predicted to lose up to 40% of snow pack, greatly reducing runoff. Climate change is debated by many, unfortunately along political lines, which is silly, it is happening. My premise for years has been the great threat is historically normal drought… Drought happens.


History shows periods of unusual dryness have lasted over 100 years…Reversion to the mean would suggest serious water shortages ahead.. This is not rocket science, the theory for major reservoirs on Co River going dry is this: LESS water going in, evaporation and more water TAKEN out = empty at some point….


My premise suggests that the Western Water Bureaucracy is far behind the curve…Most people do not know or think about water supply.

These institutions have never had to add supply at emergency rates…Today all the conventional supply is used up. What is about to happen is a stampede for water as all these institutions and major cities do what they should have already done, build a reliable reserve for the next 50 years,or no building will be allowed…The laws are in place for this now.

We may be in a multi- decade drought as climate change is clearly creating new and complex problems and situations. This is incubator for crisis…Why be concerned??? BECAUSE IID HAS THE LARGEST AND MOST SENIOR WATER RIGHTS ON THE RIVER.. Millions of people need your water and if given opportunity they will take it…EXAMPLE QSA…This fatally flawed contract is a whirl pool of adverse consequences. It is worse than a taking; a taking requires that fair market prices be paid. The QSA steals your water at below the cost to conserve ; this senior water cannot be replaced. The liability is billions and this problem could blow up immediately with fear of toxic dust from Salton Sea moving into high rent districts… ” The Silent Crisis ” You will lose your health, then your wealth…thanks to qsa and it’s unknown liability and known costs, unless you stand up and take action. Join our 3 year effort to make things better today.

Everything the IID is involved now is at critical mass and requires the top brains in water and economics and finance and politics and public relations operating as emergency team…If this was war, you would call in the Navy Seals…It is do or die….What actions are taken immediately will determine the future of the valley….Urgent strategic planning must take place.

You know my opinion: the QSA is a death wish…and must be addressed. The IID board needs to take over from a failed effort the past 12 years to handle something far greater than understood by the valley. Was the dream team a delusional effort? When do you realize errors and correct them….Fortunately one of the top Water attorneys in the country was hired to help. He is a critical part of a new team that must be formed immediately to stop the damage…This will not be easy, but continuing on with fatal errors and flaws is not acceptable. WE have persisted for 3 years to bring valuable insight and help to the IID and the valley.

Confidence and credibility is shattered. ” I am not upset that you lied to me, I am upset that from now on I cannot believe you.” Fredrich Nietzsche

“Things do not happen. Things are made to happen.” John F. Kennedy….Perhaps one must wonder why the IID is in this quagmire.??

Insanity is doing the same wrong thing over and over and hoping for success….Is it time for change??? I suggest the Present and Future business of the iid requires a paradigm shift in management. The two oldest rules in Western water matters are: 1. Never sell your water 2. He who has the water makes the rules. It is the responsibility for everyone to come together and insist on a new vision that fits the times…That will allow desert miracle # 2 to offset desert disaster QSA. One judge invalidated it—to say our situation cannot be improved is the most negative and defeatist possible position. To not try is insane. That is the kind of thinking that allowed the problem to be created and a flawed process to just go on….stop it now….fix it…

The Titanic hit an iceberg because of carelessness…The IID hit the QSA iceberg for same reason and fear. It is absolutely essential that a advanced and high level effort be made to re-negotiate the QSA..The future of valley in on the line…The actions you take today, right now are critical. The Colorado River is the life blood of today’s modern Southwest society. Millions of people rely on it. The demand and price for this water is increasing dramatically.

My predictions have been accurate and what I see is a situation that exists when supply and demand is out of kelter…It is imperative that IID gains perspective immediately, not after the next election or next year. Urgent must be the guiding principle until risk and opportunities are understood. The risk of being a water slave to millions is huge and actually defines what QSA does. ( why owning the most valuable and scarce commodity on the planet, it the iid losing money??? and facing killer liability?? )

The opportunities of taking control are greater than anything I have defined in my life. I have been waiting 30 years for this opportunity to become part of the future for the valley…You are in the right place at the right time with the right assets but for an obsolete institution, yours would be a historically profound success story of riches….Truly the American Dream….The Pioneers had the vision and the grit to get it done, You have the responsibility to protect and maximize the value of your assets…and I mean you and now…

IF NOT US WHO? IF NOT NOW WHEN? We can do this together-We are dong it now.

Tom Havens
President American Water Resources, Inc.